By Matt Gentile
Football season is finally underway, and you know what that means. It’s time to make predictions that never pan out.
Football season is finally underway, and you know what that means. It’s time to make predictions that never pan out.
Darren Zaitlen gave you his insight on the NFC East. So, let's take a look at the AFC East.
The New England Patriots ran away with the AFC East in 2011,
making a deep run into the playoffs. The New York Jets, Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills all failed to make it into the post season. But those three teams did make some key acquisitions this offseason that they hope will close a
very large gap.
New
England Patriots
(13-3)
The Patriots cruised through the regular season on their way
to Super Bowl XLVI, where they lost yet again to the New York Giants. Quarterback
Tom Brady led another high powered offense that finished third in points (512)
and second in total yards. Most of the yards came through the air, with Brady
throwing for 39 touchdowns and a career-high 5,084 yards.
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| Tom Brady is on a mission for his fourth ring in 2012. (credit: Jeffrey Beall/Wiki Commons fair use) |
If there is one weakness, it’s on defense. This unit wasn’t
as bad as many analysts thought. They were 15th in total yards allowed and
hauled in the second most interceptions in the NFL. However, their weakness was
on third down, where they allowed opposing offenses to convert about 43 percent
of the time (fifth most in NFL). The defense also was 31st in total yards
allowed.
But Bill Belichick, who made his bones as a defensive guru,
didn’t sit back this offseason and let that side of the ball go untouched. He
drafted pass rushing specialist Chandler Jones, linebacker Dont’a Hightower and
safety Tavon Williams to shore up the defense.
They might not be a dominant unit, but they can certainly do
enough not to lose games. Belichick and Brady just might have enough to win
their fourth Lombardi Trophy this year.
Prediction: 12-4
Tim Tebow has brought his gimmicky bag of tricks to the Big
Apple. You know somewhere Skip Bayless is having uncontrollable orgasms just
thinking about Tebow leading the Jets into the playoffs. You also know that
Mark Sanchez is somewhere sweating at the fact he could lose his job. Let’s
face it, his biggest supporter Brian Schottenheimer is gone, new offensive
coordinator Tony Sparano is a proponent of the Wildcat offense and Rex Ryan
could be on the hot seat. Those are good reasons for Sanchez to sleep with one
eye open.
Coming off a season where they appeared in their second
straight AFC Championship game, the Jets puzzled football fans in 2011. They
were inconsistent on offense and lacked a weapon that could make big plays. Wide
receiver Santonio Holmes seemed disinterested, tight end Dustin Keller barely
had a pulse and Shonn Greene proved to be an average running back at best.
Besides acquiring Tebow, there were no efforts to get an elite playmaker on
offense in the offseason. And not even Tebow fits that description.
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| Can Mark Sanchez stave off Tebow mania? (credit: Ed Yourdon/ Wiki commons fair use) |
If there is one saving grace for the Jets, it could be on
defense. Rex Ryan’s group gave up the fifth least number of yards last season,
and a good chunk of the personnel is returning. You expect guys like DarrelleRevis, Bart Scott, Calvin Pace and, if healthy, LaRon Landry to produce when
called upon. Given the offense’s potential woes, Jets fans hope those guys do.
Based on what we saw in the preseason, scoring points could
be an uphill battle for the Jets no matter who is behind center. And in today’s
NFL, no matter how good you are defensively, offense rules the day.
Prediction: 6-10
You have to hand it to the Dolphins last year. Despite an
0-7 start and constant talk about their head coach being fired, they fought
hard and rallied to a 6-3 finish. Now, Joe Philbin is in charge, and we don’t
know much about him. We do know he was the Green Bay Packers offensive
coordinator and that he has a riveting personality (if you watched HBO’s Hard Knocks, you know this is a joke). But
that is about it.
Since he was hired as head coach, the Dolphins have made questionable
decisions. They traded arguably their best offensive play maker Brandon
Marshall, dealt cornerback Vontae Davis in the preseason and cut wide receiver
Chad Johnson about a month after signing him. Maybe Johnson’s dismissal made
sense given the circumstances, but it could make life difficult for rookie
quarterback Ryan Tannehill.
Besides Reggie Bush at running back, Tannehill is without major
weapons at receiver or tight end and has a shaky offensive line in front of
him. It sounds like a true baptism under fire. But one thing that could make
the transition from college to the pros is offensive coordinator Mike Sherman. Sherman was Tannehill’s head coach at Texas A&M
University, and the
Dolphins offense if the virtually the same one the Aggies ran.
If they end up winning more games than expected, it will be
because Bush has a healthy and pro bowl caliber year and the defense dominates.
The Dolphins defense could have a solid year thanks to a front seven led by
Karlos Dansby and Cameron Wake.
Still, the Dolphins are in rebuilding mode. The biggest key to
watch for in 2012 is how their young quarterback handles adversity. If
Tannehill handles it in stride given the circumstances, then the arrow is
pointing up for the future.
Prediction: 5-11
Oh! Those Bills almost had us going.
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| Hey! Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't THAT bad. (credit: Ed Yourdon/ Wiki Commons fair use) |
After stunning the Patriots and starting the season 4-1, you
thought this was one of those teams that could’ve been in the playoff picture
come November or December because they were catching all the breaks. The
offense, powered by quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, running back Fred Jackson and
wide receiver Steve Johnson, looked legitimate. And while the Bills defense
wasn’t spectacular, they made clutch plays.
Entering the bye week at 4-2, the team decided to give
Fitzpatrick a long term extension, and everyone felt peachy. But then it all
unraveled. Quickly. Fitzpatrick turned the ball over at an alarming rate, Jackson got hurt, Johnson
was inconsistent and the defense got carved up as the Bills finished the year
2-8.
Enter Mario Williams. One of the NFL’s best pass rushers was
lured to Buffalo
by a six-year $100 million contract. Williams ended 2011 on injured reserve
with a torn pectoral muscle, but he appears healthy in 2012 and could be poised
for another big year. The Bills also made upgrades on defense by moving
established play caller Dave Wannstedt to defensive coordinator, drafting South Carolina
cornerback Stephon Gilmore and signing defensive end/outside linebacker MarkAnderson. Anderson
could benefit the most from playing opposite Williams.
Maybe they won’t be an elite group, but the Bills defense
won’t be in the one of the lowest ranked units in the league again. Their
offense has the ability to win some shootouts, and as long as their defense
bends but doesn’t break, the Bills could be in the AFC playoff picture this
time around.
Prediction: 9-7
Matt Gentile’s 2012 AFC
East Standings
New
England Patriots: 12-4
Buffalo Bills: 9-7
New York Jets: 6-10
Miami Dolphins: 5-11
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